Aegis: A Dynamic Risk Control Framework

Based on the Volatility Pressure Index (VPI)
A framework that reduces drawdowns while maintaining market participation.
Aegis performance comparison
Long-term performance comparison of Aegis + Trend Following, Trend Following, and SPY.
Abstract
We introduce the Volatility Pressure Index (VPI), defined as the logarithmic change in variance. VPI captures the dynamics of volatility as a cumulative state variable rather than a static level. Based on this framework, we propose Aegis, a dynamic risk control system that continuously adjusts market exposure. A forward test on SPY shows that Aegis reduces drawdowns while improving risk-adjusted returns. This study provides a new perspective on volatility as a dynamic process described by state and change.
Current Regime
MPAM Status: cash_replaced_by_SHY_state_harbor

SPY
Status: normal
Exposure: 20%

EWJ
Status: reentry
Exposure: 20%

VGK
Status: reentry
Exposure: 20%

EEM
Status: reentry
Exposure: 20%

DIA
Status: normal
Exposure: 20%

TLT
Status: normal
Exposure: 0%

GLD
Status: reentry
Exposure: 0%

FTGC
Status: reentry
Exposure: 0%

SHY
Status: active
Exposure: 0%

QFLK Return Distribution v4.0

QFLK Return Distribution Summary
Tail-adjusted Mean is the expected return after Bayesian jump-tail adjustment (%).
Battlefields: SPY / EWJ / VGK / EEM / DIA
Harbors: TLT / GLD / FTGC
Battlefield allocation is calculated as `Exposure / 5`; harbor allocation distributes the residual budget by the `inst_mult active` ratio.


Last Update: 2026-07-08
Operational Updates

Aegis Cross-Asset Weekly #10
2026-07-08

Aegis Cross-Asset Weekly #9
2026-06-30

Aegis Cross-Asset Weekly #8
2026-06-28

Aegis Cross-Asset Weekly #7
2026-06-15

Aegis Cross-Asset Weekly #6
2026-06-08

Aegis Weekly #5
2026-06-01

Aegis Monthly #1
2026-05-25

Aegis Weekly #4
2026-05-25

Aegis Weekly #3
2026-05-17

Aegis Weekly #2
2026-05-10

Aegis Weekly #1
2026-05-03