Aegis: A Dynamic Risk Control Framework
Based on the Volatility Pressure Index (VPI)
A framework that reduces drawdowns while maintaining market participation.
Abstract
We introduce the Volatility Pressure Index (VPI), defined as the logarithmic change in variance.
VPI captures the dynamics of volatility as a cumulative state variable rather than a static level.
Based on this framework, we propose Aegis, a dynamic risk control system that continuously adjusts market exposure.
A forward test on SPY shows that Aegis reduces drawdowns while improving risk-adjusted returns.
This study provides a new perspective on volatility as a dynamic process described by state and change.
Current Regime
MPAM Status: cash_replaced_by_SHY_state_harbor
SPY
Status: normal
Exposure: 20%
EWJ
Status: reentry
Exposure: 20%
VGK
Status: reentry
Exposure: 20%
EEM
Status: reentry
Exposure: 20%
DIA
Status: normal
Exposure: 20%
TLT
Status: normal
Exposure: 0%
GLD
Status: reentry
Exposure: 0%
FTGC
Status: reentry
Exposure: 0%
SHY
Status: active
Exposure: 0%
QFLK Return Distribution v4.0
Battlefield allocation is calculated as `Exposure / 5`; harbor allocation distributes the residual budget by the `inst_mult active` ratio.
Last Update: 2026-07-08
Operational Updates